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Urgent Agenda extends its condolences to Silvio Canto Jr on the passing of his beloved and distinguished father.

DECEMBER 10,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:58 P.M. ET: 

RAND OUT? – From Bloomberg:   Kentucky Senator Rand Paul will almost certainly fail to qualify for the primetime stage at next Tuesday's fifth Republican primary debate, according to an analysis of poll data conducted by Bloomberg. Paul has been included in all four of the main presidential debates to this point in the campaign.  To qualify for the CNN-sponsored primetime debate, candidates must average at least 3.5 percent support nationally or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire, based on major polls conducted between Oct. 29 and Dec. 13.  He should really get out of the race and protect his Senate seat.  All these Republican hangers-on are complicating the race terribly and allowing Trump to lead strongly in part because the field is so divided.

I LOVE IT – Lots of buzz on the internet today about the Republican National Committee preparing for a contested convention – the first in the GOP since 1976, when Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford.  I think it would be great.  Exciting, popcorn television, and a great look at a true convention in action.  It would focus the excitement on the Republican Party while Hillary is preparing her coronation, crown and all.  And a brokered convention might just produce a good nominee.

NUTS – From Daily Caller:  Just when you really thought the myriad college protests across the country couldn’t get any more daft, something comes along to prove you wrong.  In this case, it’s students at Lebanon Valley College in Annville, Pennsylvania. Demonstrators there recently insisted that school officials “remove or modify” the last name of one of the college’s past presidents as it appears on a campus building – the man’s name is Clyde A. Lynch – “due to the associated racial connotations.”  This is not a joke.  Word is that our African-American attorney-general, Loretta Lynch, will change her name to Linholm to avoid the same stigma.

FROM A LIBERAL DEM – Which makes it startling.  She's also a minority.  From The Politico:   A prominent Democratic congresswoman and Senate candidate said that up to 20 percent of Muslims want to establish an Islamic caliphate and would use "terrorism" to achieve that goal.  Rep. Loretta Sanchez said Muslims seeking a caliphate are willing to use terrorism and violence to impose their views on the Western world.  We know that there is a small group, and we don’t know how big that is — it can be anywhere between 5 and 20 percent, from the people that I speak to — that Islam is their religion and who have a desire for a caliphate and to institute that in any way possible," Sanchez said on "PoliticKING with Larry King."  “They are not content enough to have their way of looking at the world, they want to put their way on everybody in the world,” she said. “And again, I don’t know how big that is, and depending on who you talk to, but they are certainly — they are willing to go to extremes. They are willing to use and they do use terrorism.”   If a liberal Dem is talking this way, maybe the party is taking the polling numbers seriously.

December 10,  2015     Permalink

THE UNHAPPY AMERICANS – AT 10:04 A.M. ET:   Americans are exceedingly unhappy with the direction of their country.  That means no third term for Obama.  Well, of course he isn't running, but Hillary Clinton's campaign is clearly vulnerable to the perception that the administration she served has messed things up pretty badly.  From the great Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

Quite frankly, it's not looking good for Barack Obama's prospects to win a third presidential term.

Of course, another 1,461 days in the White House is not constitutionally possible for him.

But if it was, a new Gallup Poll on Americans' mood finds, the incumbent would have a difficult time convincing voters.

Oh, wait! That means the job of selling four more years of liberal Democrat rule will fall to Hillary Clinton, barring an unlikely surge by former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Initially, the expectation was Obama's former secretary of State would have to distance herself from Obama. But after a private White House lunch this week, she appears to be doubling-down on her commitment to administration policies. In fact, she's vowed to take even more executive actions than Obama.

The new Gallup survey, out Wednesday, found that the country's satisfaction with the way things are going these days sank a full seven points in just one month, down to 20%. That's a substantial and rare drop to the lowest level of national satisfaction in 13 months.

Some of that fall was likely tied to the shocking domestic terror attack in San Bernardino that killed 14, just as the national telephone survey of 824 adults began.

COMMENT:  I thought Hillary's statements this week, essentially endorsing the sinking Obama administration, were odd.  And yet, she is under threat.  Ultimately, Obama will decide what to do with the FBI investigation into Hillary's e-mails.  And, ultimately, Obama will decide whether to help or hurt Hillary.  He clearly prefers that Joe Biden succeed him.

So Obama has some control over Hillary, and he probably exercised it this week.  How long will it take the press to zero in on this political relationship?  Don't hold your breath.

December 10, 2015       Permalink

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  Oh, just some misguided fellow, probably mistreated and misunderstood.  From Fox: 

MINNEAPOLIS – Another Minnesota man has been charged with conspiring to help the Islamic State.

Abdirizak Mohamed Warsame, 20, of Eagan was charged Wednesday by criminal complaint with conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization.

Court documents allege Warsame tried to help other young men from Minnesota's Somali community travel to Syria to fight for the Islamic State. Nine others in that group have already been charged, authorities say.

The documents allege Warsame and others settled on a plan of going to Syria by way of Mexico.

Mexico?  MEXICO?  Where have I heard that name before?  Something about a southern border?

According to an FBI special agent's affidavit, one man who was planning to leave for Syria appointed Warsame to replace him as "emir," or leader, of the group.

"As the new emir, Warsame immediately encouraged those with passports and money to travel to Syria by the end of the upcoming summer," the affidavit said.

The document says Warsame gave another man $200 for an expedited passport application. Warsame also applied for a U.S. passport on an expedited basis but was denied. Warsame eventually obtained a passport in August 2014, the affidavit said.

One man made reservations for a May 2014 flight from Minneapolis to Istanbul, Turkey, with the intention of going on to Syria the document said. The day before the man was to leave, Warsame accompanied the man and two others to a public library where the man printed out his itinerary. The four men then went to a mall and shopped for items needed for travel, according to the affidavit. The man who planned to fly to Turkey was stopped at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport by FBI agents, who prevented him from boarding his flight.

COMMENT:  This is pretty chilling stuff.  You have to wonder about the number who slip through the FBI screen, for the FBI is undermanned.  I don't see Supreme Sheriff Obama providing many new agents.  Must take care of climate change.  The winds are coming, and the floods.  Build an ark.

December 10, 2015       Permalink

TRUMP ROMPS, BUT MANY ARE JITTERY – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump continues his substantial lead among Republican primary voters, but it's being noted that he commands nothing near a majority.  Many Republicans are nervous about the comments made by their "frontrunner."  From The New York Times:

Donald J. Trump occupies his strongest position yet in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, yet nearly two-thirds of American voters say they are concerned or frightened about the prospect of a Trump presidency, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News nationwide poll.

The poll was taken largely before his statement on Monday afternoon proposing to temporarily bar Muslims from entering the United States.

On the Democratic side, the poll found Hillary Clinton is maintaining her 20-point lead over Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The possibility of her winning the presidency in 2016 is only marginally more palatable to American voters than that of Mr. Trump.

And that is the key.  Republicans have an ideal opportunity to win the White House over the unpopular Hillary Clinton, if only they can get rid of the GOP curse – putting up self-destructive candidates.

Mr. Trump commands the support of 35 percent of Republican primary voters, leading his closest competitors, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas (16 percent) and Ben Carson (13 percent) by a more than 2-to-1 margin. While Mr. Carson’s support was cut in half since the last time The Times and CBS News polled on the race in late October, Mr. Cruz has quadrupled his share. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida’s support stands at 9 percent, with the rest of the candidates at 4 percent or less.

Enthusiasm for and attention to the campaign are higher among Republican primary voters than among their Democratic counterparts. A 54 percent majority of Democratic primary voters said they had made up their minds about who they will support, while 64 percent of Republicans say it is still too early to be sure. Majorities of Trump and Clinton supporters say their decision is firm.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  The numbers are there.  We forget that the Republicans blew several opportunities in recent years to take the Senate because they put up some major-league clowns as candidates.  They finally did win control of the upper house when they got their act together.

The race for the White House is really just beginning, with primaries and caucuses weeks away.   Hillary Clinton is regarded as more dishonest than honest by American voters in many polls.  Republicans, give it your best shot.

December 10,  2015     Permalink

DECEMBER 9,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

BERNIE NOT DEAD – From The Hill:   Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is holding onto a double-digit lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, according to a new CNN/WMUR Poll released Wednesday.  Sanders receives 50 percent support in that state, followed by Hillary Clinton, with 40 percent support, and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, with 1 percent support.  Sanders and Clinton both gained support in the poll, which for the first time did not give respondents the option to select Vice President Biden, who announced in October he would not seek the Democratic presidential nomination.
Clinton narrowed the gap slightly since the last iteration of the poll in September, when she trailed Sanders by 16 points.  It probably won't matter much in the end.  Clinton appears to be sewing up the nomination, in part due to substantial black support in Southern states.  The only thing that can disrupt her is the FBI investigation.

NEVER BEEN JAILED – Hillary Clinton certainly knows how to produce awkward moments.  From the Washington Free Beacon:   Hillary Clinton made an awkward joke Wednesday during a town hall in Iowa, remarking that she’d been to “Yale, not jail” when a man wearing the university’s logo on his cap stood up to ask her a question.  “Ok, we’ve got a gentleman right there in the Yale cap,” Clinton said. “Oh my goodness. I’ve spent time there. That was Yale, not jail! He and I, we have this in common.”  The audience laughed, although it was unclear why Clinton felt the need to clear that up to her supporters. Clinton received her law degree from Yale, where she also met her husband and future president Bill Clinton.  Hillary Clinton and her use of a private email while she was secretary of state are under federal investigation right now, as well as her potential mishandling of classified information at the State Department. She signed a non-disclosure agreement laying out criminal penalties for any negligent handling of classified information that could jeopardize national security, as many experts have charged happened with her use of an unsecured server that she wiped clean.  Maybe jail is on her mind as one career alternative before her.

THE SINKING SHIP – I was baffled by the decision by CBS to replace David Letterman with doctrinaire, politically driven Stephen Colbert.  Apparently, others are baffled as well.  From Mediaite:  For Stephen Colbert and CBS, this wasn’t the game plan.  Because now…just three months after so much hype and so much love went into Mr. Colbert’s debut as the new host of Late Night, the former Comedy Central star has somehow fallen into 4th place where it matters most. In the all-important demo, he’s now being doubled up (and then some) by NBC’s Jimmy Fallon (outscored by 137 percent) and hasn’t beaten ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel in over a month. But here’s where CBS brass is likely doing a double-take: During the week of November 23-27, the 11:35 PM Late Show on CBS was beaten by Seth Meyers, who happens to be on one hour later (12:35 PM) on the Peacock.  I don't think Colbert will last that long.  He doesn't have that "late-night feel."  He's so obviously liberal that he loses a large chunk of audience before he even goes on the air.  The key to late night is comedy, with a little bit of sting.  Not sting, with a little bit of comedy.

December 9, 2015       Permalink 

HILLARY EXPOSED AGAIN – AT 2:41 P.M. ET:  But will it really mean anything to the political class?  From Fox:

As the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi was unfolding, a high-ranking Pentagon official urgently messaged Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s top deputies to offer military help, according to an email obtained by Judicial Watch.

The revelation appears to contradict testimony Defense Secretary Leon Panetta gave lawmakers in 2013, when he said there was no time to get forces to the scene in Libya, where four Americans were killed, including U.S. Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens.

“I just tried you on the phone but you were all in with S [apparent reference to then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton],” reads the email, from Panetta’s chief of staff Jeremy Bash. “After consulting with General Dempsey, General Ham and the Joint Staff, we have identified the forces that could move to Benghazi. They are spinning up as we speak.”

The email was sent out at 7:19 p.m. ET on Sept. 11, 2012, in the early stages of the eight-hour siege that also claimed the lives of Foreign Service Information Management Officer Sean Smith and two former Navy SEALs, Ty Woods and Glen Doherty, private CIA contractors who raced to the aid of embattled State Department workers.

COMMENT:  With the full help of the liberal press, Clinton will probably call for us to "move on" and "talk about the things that matter to Americans."  And she'll probably get her way. 

December 9,  2015     Permalink

DEMS WORRY OVER OBAMA APPEASEMENT – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:   Democrats are looking at the polls, and worrying that Obama's squishy anti-terror policies are dragging them down.  From The Hill: 

Democrats are increasingly fearful that President Obama’s handling of the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is becoming a liability for their party.

Those fears have become more acute after Obama’s Sunday evening address from the Oval Office, where the president unveiled little by way of news or strategic shifts.

“Weak and unclear,” Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf told The Hill, when asked for his reaction to Obama’s remarks. “What is the plan of action?”

Sheinkopf added that, at this point, “any rational person would worry about his legacy, and any rational Democrat would worry about the Democrats being injured in an electoral setting.”

This vulnerability is all the more frustrating to Democrats because at one point during Obama’s presidency — the period immediately following the operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 — they believed that the party’s traditional disadvantage on issues of national security had been erased.

In a CNN/ORC poll shortly after the al Qaeda leader’s death, 65 percent of Americans approved of Obama’s handling of terrorism, against 34 percent who disapproved.

Obama enjoyed a similar rating on the issue at the beginning of his second term, which followed an election campaign during which his vice president, Joe Biden, had boiled down the case for reelection to the fact that America had become more prosperous and safe: “Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive.”

But the president’s poll ratings on terrorism began sliding soon afterward, and they have now been completely reversed from their high point.

In a CNN/ORC poll released last week, only 38 percent approved of his handling of terrorism, while 60 percent disapproved — the lowest mark of his presidency. Asked specifically about Obama’s approach to ISIS, 33 percent approved and 64 percent disapproved.

“If the president’s ratings are low, that’s always a problem for his party in elections,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “There is no getting around that.”

COMMENT:  Look for Hillary to "get tough" after she secures her nomination.  Right now she's running neck-and-neck, in poll matchups, with most of the GOP field. 

ISIS and Al Qaeda will also have a say in our elections.  Will they attack during the election campaign, inciting anger in the U.S. and further criticism of the Democratic administration?  Or will they lie low, hoping to drive terror down the priority list for American voters?  The election is 11 months away.

December 9, 2015       Permalink

GERMANY ON THE BRINK – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:   Just when Angela Merkel is named TIME's person of the year, word comes that Germany is getting wobbly in the war on terror.  It is also a country that is leading the "normalization" with Iran, the better to secure industrial contracts.  From Gatestone Institute: 

The number of radical Salafists in Germany has more than doubled over the past five years, according to a new estimate by German intelligence officials.

Salafists disguised as aid workers are also canvassing German refugee shelters in search of new recruits from among the nearly one million asylum seekers who have arrived in Germany this year from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

A local preacher addresses Muslim refugees in Münster, Germany. Local authorities later cut off contact with the preacher's organization due to suspicions of radical Islamism.

The revelations by Hans-Georg Maassen, the director of the Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), come amid growing fears that jihadists linked to the Islamic State have infiltrated Germany by posing as refugees.

In a December 3 interview with the Berlin newspaper, Der Tagesspiegel, Maassen said that the number of Salafists in Germany has now risen to 7,900. This is up from 7,000 in 2014, 5,500 in 2013, 4,500 in 2012, and 3,800 in 2011.

COMMENT:  Germany, trying to live down the image of the Nazi era, has gone too far in the other direction, toward a kind of worship of multiculturalism.  But the country, already suffering from a seriously low birth rate, is in danger of becoming de-Europeanized, with radical immigrants holding the balance of political power.

December 9, 2015       Permalink

ALL TRUMP ALL THE TIME – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  It's really remarkable to see – how CNN and others have struggled to replace terrorism with Donald Trump as the lead story. 

It goes on and on, especially at CNN.  Of course, it's standard fare on the journalistic left, painting the conservative opposition as (choose one or more) racist, sexist, anti-gay, militaristic, Islamophobic, or just people who get us upset.  In Trump's extreme suggestion to temporarily ban Muslim immigration to the U.S., the establishment press has found the perfect distraction from the real issue – people who want to kill us.

In the meantime, Michael Goodwin of the New York Post, one of the best columnists around, analyzes Trump's strategy:

My first reaction to Donald Trump’s call to ban new Muslims from entering the United States was that he had simultaneously won the GOP nomination and lost the general election. My second reaction was that events will prove one of those predictions wrong.

If there are no more terror attacks in America before the end of the primary season, most Republican voters will see Trump’s plan as too radical and he will lose the nomination.

On the other hand, if there are more attacks in the homeland, many more voters will move in Trump’s direction and he would almost certainly win the nomination and maybe the presidency.

In effect, Trump is betting his campaign on there being more attacks. I hope he is wrong, but fear he will be right.

To be clear, I don’t support his plan. Singling out all Muslims is vulgar and probably unconstitutional. A religious test is unAmerican.

The idea is so toxic that it has the unfortunate effect of making President Obama look right for once. Obama warns repeatedly about Islamophobia, including in his grating Sunday-night lecture, even though there wasn’t much of it. Jews suffer disproportionately from religious hate crimes, not Muslims.

Trump obliterated those facts in a heartbeat, a development that could, temporarily at least, contaminate all get-tough approaches on terror and boost Obama and Hillary Clinton.

COMMENT:  It's worth reading the whole thing.  Goodwin has his ear to the ground.

December 9,  2015    Permalink